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(Solved): I have a question regarding the extreme value analysis. I fitted a GEV to the data of season best(a ...



I have a question regarding the extreme value analysis.

I fitted a GEV to the data of season best(annual maxima) from women's 100m dash.

I fitted a stationary, linear, and quadratic models, but the quadratic model has the best AIC, so the final chosen model is this one; however, the shape parameter \xi>0.

Is this reasonable? If this was negative, it would seem reasonable to me since with the negative shape parameter, there wold be an upper end point.

The linear model has its AIC = -47, and its shape parameter is -0.14.

The quadratic model has its AIC=-123, and its shape parameter is 0.15.

How should I interpret this situation?



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